Photovoltaic as the current strong economy of renewable energy, supported by technology, policies and subsidies on a global scale rapid development, also got it. large-scale application. The improvement of crystalline silicon technology and the efficiency of the conversion rate of photovoltaic modules by manufacturers have greatly reduced the cost of photovoltaics, making photovoltaics more popular in the market. But the new crown epidemic in 2020 has slowed down the rapid development of photovoltaics, and this epidemic not only impact domestic PV module production and foreign added installed capacity, also led to rapid currency depreciation in some areas, making PV construction rising costs. Under the momentum of the global promotion of renewable energy, how the photovoltaic market will develop is worth exploring.
Global installed capacity
in recent years, policy and solar photovoltaic significant reduction in costs the rapid development of renewable energy has promoted major changes in the global power system. In terms of renewable energy power supply, hydropower has made great contributions, and the proportion of solar photovoltaic and wind power generation is also increasing. REN21, a global renewable energy platform, has released the Global Renewable Energy Status Report 2020 (GSR2020). Global Renewable Energy Capacity Added in 2019 more than 200GW, of which photovoltaic accounted for the highest proportion, the new installed capacity reached. 115GW, up 12% YoY (Figure 1). By the end of 2019, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 627GW. In 2019, renewable energy installations five consecutive years more than fossil fuels and nuclear power. The decline in the cost of wind energy and photovoltaics has allowed these most cost-effective energy solutions to continue to create low prices and gain global favor.
Figure 1 Annual increase in global renewable energy 2013 to 2019
in the installed capacity of renewable energy, China's installed capacity still ranks first, followed by the United States, Brazil, and Germany (Figure 2). According to the Global Renewable Energy Cost Report 2018 released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in the first half of 2019, the global cost of photovoltaic electricity (LCOE, weighted average) in 2018 was $0.085/degree (converted at the exchange rate of 7, equivalent to RMB 0.595 yuan/degree). The cost range for 90% of the PV scale is 0.058-0.219 USD/degree, gradually approaching the cost of fossil fuel power generation.
Figure 2 Global total renewable energy power capacity ranking as of 2019
Photovoltaic cost reduction and efficiency, how to achieve
with the improvement of renewable energy development technology and the gradual increase of solar photovoltaic installed capacity, the quality and price of components, batteries and raw materials for solar panels also have obvious trends. As the most expensive raw material in silicon batteries, polycrystalline silicon is also the direct raw material for the production of monocrystalline silicon, known as" the Cornerstone of the Microelectronics Building". As the price of crystalline silicon raw materials decreases, the cost of battery chips and components decreases. Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement is one of the goals of the development of solar photovoltaic, reduce the cost of silicon wafers is currently mainly through two ways. 
Introduction of Cutting Crystalline Silicon Technology
there are currently three technologies for purifying silicon at the global level, namely siemens method, fluidized bed method and metallurgical method the Siemens method has a cost advantage over the metallurgical method and has become the most mainstream technology. DWS(Diamond Wire Sawing) technology introduced since 2018 reduce unnecessary cutting loss and reduce wafer thickness as much as possible with the maturity of purification technology and the introduction of cutting silicon technology, the reduction in price and low cost has been greatly reduced. As can be seen in Figure 4, the cost of polysilicon components continues to decline.
Surface texturing technology of photovoltaic modules
increase power generation efficiency it can also be hairy through the surface of the battery board. Reduced Reflectivity to optimize the efficiency of the battery. At present, the surface of the panel wool technology, mainly. acid deformation, metal catalytic corrosion(metal catalyzed chemical etching) and reactive ion etching(Reactive ion etching) mainly. acid deformation it is the mainstream wet chemical process for polysilicon and is currently used. Most one of the technologies, due to the high cost of the RIE process, accounts for less than 2% of the market. In Figure 5, under the downward trend in PV costs, cost of PV modules it is still the largest in the entire photovoltaic system.
The impact of the new crown outbreak on component cost reduction and efficiency.
Taking the full-year demand in 2019 as an example, China has 30GW of installed capacity and 95GW of overseas installed capacity, with overseas demand accounting for more 75% it has become the real backbone of the photovoltaic industry. However, now that the overseas epidemic is unstable, the export of photovoltaic products may appear to be certain. Decrease or slow down in particular, markets in key epidemic areas, such as Italy and South Korea, will be greatly affected. Zhou Yuan, secretary-general of the PGO Photovoltaic Green Ecological Cooperation Organization, said: "According to the development process of the epidemic abroad, if effective control is not carried out, 70% dependent on exports china's photovoltaic industry will be affected. The domestic epidemic has been basically controlled, photovoltaic enterprises are actively resuming work and production, project declaration work is carried out in an orderly manner, and national policies are in line with industry expectations, but how to deal with the outbreak of overseas epidemics is worthy of attention."
due to coronavirus concerns, Bloomberg New Energy Finance adjusted its analysis of the global PV outlook for 2020, and many solar plants in China resumed production, suggesting that concerns about the supply of PV modules may soon begin to ease. However, the temporary pause will have an impact on the global solar market, as the implementation of some projects may postponed by next year. There have been delays in PV tenders in several countries. France has a two-month delay in the bidding date for new PV projects in 2020, while Brazil has an indefinite delay. Portugal, the Middle East and other countries have carried out such extension of Tender. sharp changes in exchange rates, resulting in photovoltaic rising costs. The cost of solar PV in Brazil, Mexico will be affected by the soaring dollar. About 30% growth. According to a recent survey conducted by the California Solar Energy Association (CALSSA), more than half of photovoltaic companies said the impact of the outbreak was negative. Due to the strong spread of overseas outbreaks, many photovoltaic companies have taken layoffs, vacations, pay cuts and other measures to reduce their operating costs. Lead to California about cuts15600 jobs related to solar energy and storage.
Future domestic and foreign photovoltaic market expectations
based on the current installed capacity and the expected installed capacity of various projects, domestic2020 installed capacity may be in 36-42GW. In 2021, if the industry continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the cost of electricity continues to explore, the market may further expand, but if the economic development is not as expected, electricity demand shrinks, the photovoltaic market will be partially suppressed. The domestic epidemic has been well controlled, photovoltaic production capacity has been fully restored, domestic demand for photovoltaic modules has also been resolved, but the foreign epidemic is still relatively severe, foreign demand will also be reduced. From a geographical point of view, china and developed countries there are relatively perfect medical conditions and response policies, large-scale photovoltaic projects are far away from the city and the population density center, for the work of photovoltaic projects. Less impact. And less developed areas, such as Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America market will be. Larger impact. A few days ago, the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Matters Related to the Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2020" to clarify the construction plan of photovoltaic power generation projects in 2020 and further stabilize domestic market expectations. The outbreak has brought some photovoltaic enterprises. certain pressure if the supply of raw materials in the production process is not enough, the backlog of orders caused by the delay in the resumption of work, the delay in the delivery period, the extension of the account period of the sales process, and even the risk of the change or possible termination of the fixed contract. In this case, different equipment suppliers can strengthen cooperation when there is no competition, especially. On the project site human cooperation. Between upstream and downstream PV companies, suppliers of different equipment strengthening cooperation, under the premise of removing the competitive factor, improve work efficiency.
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