China's lithium battery can be called one of the wildest and most volumizing industries in the past two years or so.
According to the statistics of the 24-tide Industry Research Institute (TTIR), in the past two years (from the beginning of 2022 to April 18, 2024), China's lithium battery industry chain has announced 660 major manufacturing projects with a total investment budget of nearly 3.2 trillion yuan, as follows: in 2022, the investment budget of 299 major investment projects is nearly 1.9 trillion yuan; In 2023, the investment budget of 260 2 major investment projects exceeded 1 trillion yuan; since 2024 (April 18), the total investment budget of 101 major investment projects has exceeded 0.6 trillion yuan.
Among them, there are as many as 120 major projects with a single investment of 10 billion yuan. The most fierce expansion is the power and energy storage battery circuit, with a total investment of more than 2.1 trillion yuan (see the appendix at the end of the article for specific investment information of enterprises).
According to statistics from the 24-tide Industry Research Institute (TTIR), at least 325 lithium super projects have entered the implementation (construction) stage at the level of listed companies alone. The total investment budget of these 325 projects exceeds 860 billion yuan, covering the entire lithium battery industry chain such as lithium battery manufacturing, upstream raw materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, positive and negative electrode materials, electrolyte, lithium separator, lithium copper foil, etc.
At present, one side of China's lithium battery industry is burning like a flame; the other side is like an iceberg, cold and hard, hiding unknown and huge risks.
First of all, according to a set of statistics from the 24 Tide Industry Research Institute (TTIR), up to now, on the six core tracks of power battery, energy storage battery, positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte and lithium battery diaphragm, the known enterprise capacity planning far exceeds the forecast upper limit of market demand by third-party research institutions in 2025, and a tragic reshuffle and game seem inevitable in the next three years.
(Note: The power battery capacity plan in the chart includes some energy storage capacity)
in particular, the development of the lithium industry is becoming the consensus of more and more people in the industry. According to the 24 Tide Industry Research Institute (TTIR), overall operating income fell 0.17 percent year-on-year in 2023, down 88.30 percentage points from 2022, while net profit attributable to parents fell 45.07 percent year-on-year, down 176.83 percent from 2022. Webpage link {(see the article "China's Top Ten Lithium Battery Ranking List of the Year" for details)}
by 2024, the trend has become more dangerous. In the first quarter of 2023, the operating income of 107 (note: Hong Kong listed companies did not disclose the first quarter of 2024) lithium-electric listed companies totaled 292.907 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent totaled 16.907 billion yuan, down 50.16 percent year-on-year.
In fact, at present, most of the second and third tier manufacturers are almost in a state of loss, and many enterprises may not survive this round of reshuffle cycle.
The 24 Tide Industry Research Institute (TTIR) also found that the crazy wave of lithium-electric trillion-dollar investment has seen major project terminations, or delays.
As shown in the table below, since 2023, the lithium battery manufacturing field that can be checked has been terminated, and even more than 20 incidents of lithium battery business have been directly seen, involving lithium batteries, nickel lithium raw materials, lithium battery raw materials and other sub-sectors, with a total investment scale of over 30 billion yuan.
the 24 tide team analysis found that with the severe changes in the industrial situation, the cracks in the trillion investment map are still further extending and expanding.
For example, at present, many star enterprises are deeply involved in work stoppage, production stoppage, or are included in the list of those who have broken their promises. It is doubtful whether their real strength can support the 10 billion investment strategy.
For example, in February 2022, Jiewei Power signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tianchang Municipal People's Government of Chuzhou, Anhui Province. The two sides reached a cooperation on the settlement of Jiewei Power 20GWh lithium battery production base project in Chuzhou.
It is understood that the total investment of Jiewei Power Chuzhou Lithium Battery Production Base Project is about 10 billion yuan, with a planned production of 20GWh. The product types cover lithium iron phosphate and ternary material systems, which will be mainly used for the production of advanced power lithium ion batteries. The project is planned to be completed and put into operation before the end of 2023.
However, at the end of November 2023, a "company shutdown, employee leave and training notice" shocked the industry. According to the document, due to the influence of objective factors such as the market and the upstream and downstream industrial chain, in order to ensure the sustainable development of the company's business, the management decided that Tianjin Jiewei began to stop production from December 1, 2023.
According to Phoenix's "eye of the storm" reported on December 9, in fact, the problem of Jetway power is far more serious than the notice. Its battery production base in Tianjin has been suspended for three months. Wu Sujun, a grass-roots employee who has worked in Jiewei Power for more than 10 years, told Phoenix Network's "Eye of the Storm" that the battery factory had been completely shut down. Before the shutdown, there were only 400 employees left in the headquarters. After the shutdown, they left half. The rest of the staff stayed in the company, either on vacation or receiving training and receiving the minimum wage.
Enterprise investigation shows that at present, Jetway Power has been included in the list of untrustworthy persons subject to enforcement, and there are also two consumption restriction orders, which were issued on April 28 and May 20, 2024.
In addition, even some enterprises that plan to expand by 10 billion yuan have been included in the list of those who have broken their promises. For example, on the afternoon of May 23, 2022, the cooperation framework agreement on 20GWh power battery and supporting industry projects of Tianjin New Energy and the signing ceremony of the strategic cooperation agreement between Pacific Century Capital and Qianshan City were held in Qianshan, Anhui Province. It marks the official settlement of Tianjin New Energy 20GWh power battery project in Anhui Buried Hill.
It is reported that the total investment of this Tianjin New Energy 20GWh power battery and supporting industry project is 10 billion yuan, of which the first phase is 5 billion yuan, and the 10GWh power battery manufacturing project is planned.
According to the enterprise investigation, Tianjin New Energy has been included in the list of dishonest executors at present, and 7 messages show the status of "all unfulfilled". The latest release date is March 26, 2024, and the executed amount is 28.71 million yuan.
In order to resist the cold wave of the industry, many enterprises are accelerating their international layout, but the real situation is that some major overseas projects of some enterprises also seem to be delayed or even nearly stagnant.
For example, Enjie shares announced as early as May 2022 that it plans to build a lithium battery isolation membrane project in the United States with an investment budget of about 6.38 billion yuan. According to the financial report, by the end of 2022, the project progress of the factory will be about 10%, but by the end of 2023, the project progress will remain unchanged, still 10%, almost at a standstill.
In addition, in November 2020, Enjie also plans to build 4 fully automatic imported film production lines and more than 30 coating production lines in Hungary, with an annual base film production capacity of about 0.4 billion square meters. The investment budget of the project is about 0.34 billion euros. According to its strategic plan at that time, "the project is expected to start mass production before the end of the first quarter of 2023." However, the financial report shows that by the end of 2023, the progress of Enjet's Hungarian plant was only 76.50 per cent, and the project was less than expected.
The tide of major project terminations continues. On June 6, International Industry (000159.SZ) also announced that the company held the second interim meeting of the ninth board of directors on June 6, 2024, and reviewed and approved the ''Regarding the termination of investment in the construction of lithium iron phosphate energy storage The proposal of the battery PACK integrated production line project.
The above is the introduction of lithium batteries by Anteje Testing and Certification. It is for reference only. The materials come from 24 tides and do not represent the views of Anteje Testing Technology and are responsible for its authenticity. If you are involved in the content of the work, copyright and other issues, please contact us within 30 days, we will delete the content in the first time!
